Colorado Foreclosures could hit 40,000 by year end

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Colorado’s foreclosure pace shows no signs of slowing, with predictions that the number of foreclosures could hit 40,000 by year-end.That would mark a 41 percent increase over the record 28,435 foreclosure filings in the state in 2006.

A report released Thursday by the Colorado Division of Housing shows that 19,460 foreclosures were filed in the state in the first six months of the year. While the report estimated between 36,000 and 38,000 foreclosures in 2007, it is considered a conservative number.
Foreclosure activity often accelerates in the second half of the year according to the public trustees offices more than half of the foreclosures through June 10,015 and took place in the second quarter.

What is causing a great deal of the foreclosures is the fact that many adjustable-rate mortgages are readjusting and that there is a large inventory of unsold homes clogging the market. If you can’t make your payments, and you need to sell your house, odds are that you won’t be able to sell it quickly or easily. Roy Alexander, head of the Colorado Housing and Finance Authority, said this week that the Colorado and national foreclosure crisis will worsen next year.

In the second quarter, 1,575 homes were purchased using CHFA financing, for a total $140.82 million in mortgages. CHFA has reservations for an additional 2,041 loans totaling $180 million.

The Division of Housing report also continued its criticism of California-based RealtyTrac, which said Colorado had a much higher 17,852 homes in some state of foreclosure in the second quarter alone. That suggests that RealtyTrac combined the 10,017 new foreclosure filings and the 6,322 foreclosure sales, “plus some unknown data,” to arrive at its number, according to the state division’s report.

More homeowners would be made eligible for FHA insurance, allowing them to refinance risky adjustable-rate mortgages

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Washington - The Bush administration today will propose a set of policies meant to help ease the wave of mortgage defaults, according to senior administration officials. It is the administration’s first broad effort to deal with rising levels of home foreclosures, which are widely forecast to increase further in the coming year.

President Bush and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson Jr. will propose changes to the Federal Housing Administration mortgage insurance program that would allow more people to refinance with FHA insurance if they have fallen behind on adjustable-rate mortgages, which offer low introductory rates that can later rise, sometimes doubling a monthly mortgage payment.

Currently, people who have missed mortgage payments are ineligible for FHA insurance. In the president’s plan, they would be eligible so long as they fell behind only because their required payment adjusted to a higher level, as is now happening with many mortgages issued from 2004 to 2006. The officials said the administration can make this change without congressional approval, but other details will require action on Capitol Hill.

Officials expect that 2 million of these types of mortgages made to risky, or subprime, borrowers will adjust in the next two years, with a total value of more than $500 billion.

“They need to have had a good payment history up to the point of the reset,” said a senior administration official who spoke on condition of anonymity because the plan was not yet formally announced. The official estimated that the change would allow an extra 80,000 homeowners to receive a federally insured mortgage in 2008 on top of the 160,000 already forecast to use the program.

The FHA does not make loans but insures them, which helps lower the cost of mortgages for borrowers and makes the loans less risky for lenders. The agency has $22 billion in reserves to cover defaults. No taxpayer money is involved; the reserves are made up of premiums paid by borrowers.

http://www.american-global-finance.com

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The Effective Use of Hard Money

Seasoned real estate investors know the value of having a hard money lender in their corner. When that fantastic deal comes along, but you know that you’ll have to snap it up quickly or it’ll be gone, you don’t have the time to drop by the bank, put in an application, and then wait three- to six months for them to decide on your investment real estate proposal. With a hard money lender you’ll be able to act quickly, to take advantage of opportunities as they become available.

Hard Money Lenders will usually lend 50% - 65% of the after-repaired value (ARV) of an investment property, minus the cost of repairs. The loan will usually be interest-only for the purchase and rehab of the property. Most hard money lenders understand the game: how the real estate market and real estate loans work, and they’re looking for a secure investment with a better rate of return than what they can get from a bank. Look for a lender that you can build a relationship with. The better you begin to know each other, the better terms you’ll begin to receive.

In order to make multiple offers on different properties listed with real estate agents, you will absolutely need a “Prequalification Letter” to submit along with your offers, especially if the properties that you’re interested in are REOs (Real Estate Owned - in other words, bank-foreclosed properties). This is because many investors have made offers on foreclosed properties but never followed through on the purchase of them. Therefore foreclosure officers and agents have become somewhat suspicious of all investors. But once they know that you’re serious, that you have access to financing, your offers will carry more weight with them. Once you’ve completed a few transactions, they’ll even begin contacting you about properties before anyone else even knows about them. You’ll also become more confident, knowing that you’re able to close on properties and either rehab or wholesale them to other buyers.

And speaking of selling properties to other investors, a relationship with a hard money lender can again prove itself to be invaluable. Your own hard money lender will be your most important resource for ensuring that your deals make it all the way to closing. You can actually put your buyer together with his financing source, your seller. Many prospective investors cannot pay all cash, and you don’t want to wait while they go off and try to arrange financing. You’ve got your own financing source; your own “bank” waiting in the wings for the next great deal. You can lead your buyer to the money.

Hard money lenders are a great resource for real estate investors, whether beginner or seasoned pro. Having a hard money lender behind you allows you to confidently make offers that you couldn’t otherwise make. Hard money enables you to carry through on those offers when they are accepted, and provides you with the necessary funds that you need for rehabbing or disposing of the property.

Recently Sold in Blackhawk - August 2007

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Well folks, it's that time again!  I have seven properties for your perusal that recently sold in Blackhawk in the month of August.

The homes, er, rather, home, singular, that sold for at or above the asking price has been bolded.  It's definitely still a buyer's market out there.

  • 133 Kingswood Circle (3br/2ba) - Listed for $895,000 - Sold for $862,500
  • 152 Birchbark Place (3br/2ba) - Listed for $1,120,000 - Sold for $1,200,000
  • 4339 Quail Run Lane (5br/3ba) - Listed for $1,299,000 - Sold for $1,290,000
  • 2769 Deer Meadow Drive (4br/3ba) - Listed for $1,749,000 - Sold for $1,695,000
  • 62 Silver Pine Lane (4br/3ba) - Listed for $1,775,000 - Sold for $1,730,000
  • 5444 Blackhawk Drive (4br/4ba) - Listed for $2,898,000 - Sold for $2,625,000
  • 304 Pheasant Run Drive (5br/5ba) - Listed for $3,250,000 - Sold for $3,100,000

S&P: Washington Mutual Rating Cut to “Sell”

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Shocking, an S&P analyst today changed his rating on WM to a "sell." Considering we are entering into an unprecedented housing downturn and already in the thick of a secondary market liquidity crisis, you would think analysts would have cut ratings on pretty much all major banks, particularly those like WM with nearly 10% in junk housing loans. The next few quarterly earnings reports should take WM lower.

FBR just reduced 2007 earnings estimates by 31% from $3.60 a share to $2.50 on possible loan writedowns.  Credit Suisse announced yesterday that mortgage lending will go from $3.3 trillion in 2005 to an estimated $1.8 trillion in 2008.  Keep in mind that pretty much all remaining mortgage originators are focused on the "prime" sector which they can sell to Fannie or Freddie - with increased competition comes even thiner margins.  Not a good long-term business model.

Disclosure, we have been short (put options) WM since February 2007 and continue to maintain this position.

August 30, 2007 - NEW YORK (AP) -- A Standard & Poor's stock analyst cut his rating on Washington Mutual Inc. on Thursday, citing concerns about the bank's exposure to the ailing housing market.

Mortgage banking analyst Stuart Plesser downgraded Washington Mutual stock to "Sell" from "Hold," and cut his target price by $4 to $33. He also lowered his 2007 and 2008 earnings forecasts, to $3.41 and $3.90 respectively.

Plesser noted that about 9 percent of Washington Mutual's loan portfolio is subprime mortgages, or home loans to people with poor credit histories. He said deteriorating credit quality will likely force the bank to boost its provisions for unpaid loans by more than expected in the second half.

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US Housing Crisis

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A posting by Vancouver Home Mortgage:

As reported by The Washingtion Times Business - 8/30/2007: The credit and housing crisis deepened yesterday amid reports of a record 3.5 percent drop in home prices during the spring and a resurgence of subprime defaults this summer after millions of mortgages reset at dramatically higher payment rates.

While consumers are increasingly focused on the deteriorating housing and credit situation, the Fed remained focused on its fight against inflation at a meeting Aug. 7, just days before the credit crunch escalated into a market rout on Wall Street, according to minutes from the meeting released yesterday.

In another interview by Bloomberg and originally aired on: 8/29/2007 on CNBC, Robert Shiller discussed the results of the latest quarterly release of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices and to provide his assessment of the performance of the Fed including their recent rate and liquidity actions. Shiller concludes that, even today, the Fed is still underestimating the severity of the housing crisis and furthermore, that a recession may be looming.

The US housing market is now going through:

1) A contraction in liquidity eliminating new buyers from getting any new subprime mortgages.

2) Deflating house prices as a result of over supply of inventory of new and resale homes.

3) Billions of 2/28 type mortgages are facing interest rate resets in 2007 and 2008. Both prime and subprime borrowers are not able to afford the higher mortgage payments after the rate resets.

4) Financing for jumbo loans are costly due to lack of liquidity to fund such loans. This will curtail home buying activities and limit demand for houses.

5) The past 5 years excess liquidity and loose lending control have resulted in huge increase in property prices. In most places house prices are still unrealistically high.

The above factors are likely to contribute to a decline in the US housing market. In a declining market, demand will be weak as buyers will stay on the sideline and wait for lower prices. The fact that house prices are presently still highly over-priced and unaffordable, and it will take many years for prices to unwind. Eventually, the market will be stabilized when the supply and demand once again reach an equilabrium.

You are welcome to post your comments and offer your opinion as how the housing market in Canada may be affected by the deteriorating housing market situation in the US.

Trash talk on Wall Street

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An analyst at Lehman Brothers downgraded 4 Wall Street banks today.  Price targets were reduced and yearly earnings were also cut. 

The Victims:

  • Goldman Sachs
    • Price target dropped to $214 from $238
    • 2008 earning outlook at $21.79 a share from $22.90
  •  Bear Stearns
    • Price target dropped to $142 from $186
    • 2008 earning outlook down to $12.17 from $16.00
  •  Merrill Lynch
    • Price target dropped to $106 from $115
    • 2008 earning outlook down to $8.83 from $9.10
  • Morgan Stanley
    • Price target dropped to $81 from $85
    • 2008 earning outlook down to $7.90 from $8.41

 Lehman didn't say anything about it self directly, but the negative tone was implied accross the board.  Forecasts for the remainder of the year also took a hair cut.  The mortgage market weakness will continue its' impact on the financial markets for many months to come. 

Why Isn’t Every Realtor In The World Doing This?

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I filmed a video house tour yesterday and the homeowner asked me, "Why isn't every realtor in the world doing this?" His broker sent him to our sister site, Cape Cod Inside Tours, to give 594095_info_sign_-_question_mark1.jpghim a sense of what we would be doing for his house and the homeowner said that he and his wife couldn't get enough. (Here is what his house tour looks like.) Standing on the lawn with him, he was perplexed why all local realtors weren't jumping on the bandwagon. All I could do was agree with him.

Video house tours are taking advantage of the latest technology. Since 80% of all potential homebuyers start their search for a new home on the internet, it is crucial that a realtor's web presence is as helpful, pleasant, savvy and welcoming as it can be. Using video to showcase a house allows potential buyers to get a true feeling for the property. Virtual tours, picture slideshows and stand alone photos can not give a viewer the sense of being on the property like video can. Often times they are disorienting, confusing and unattractive. A video tour is an open house walk through done from a distance. It's weeding out the serious from the not so interested.

The time will come when a majority of homes will be showcased on-line through video. As more and more dollars move out of print advertising, more and more will be invested on the web. Video tours will become commonplace. Only the smartest offices are taking advantage of it now. For what most realtors spend in a month of print advertising, a video tour, which can stay up week after week, month after month with no additional cost, is a mere fraction of the price.

Presently, I charge $250 for each tour. This includes the shoot, the hosting and supplying the link, which you can post and submit anywhere you like. 180891_porcelain_houses1.jpgOther web videographers around the country are charging similar fees. This is short money for a service that lasts as long as the house is on the market. How much does it cost for your ad to appear in the local paper every week for six months?

Check for video tour companies in your area. If you have one locally, begin to offer tours to your sellers. They will thank you for showcasing their homes in such a way. You will also find that the buyers you attract will already be interested in the home after having their interest piqued on-line.

If there are no local video tour companies, hire a traditional videographer to shoot the film. It should cost you between $100-$300 and then send it to us. We can edit it, host it and broadcast it to the world. The real estate business is changing and it is important for you to be leading the charge. Video tours are a small investment for a very powerful return.

What Countryside is saying to the Wholesale Broker Community

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August 28,2007

 

To Countrywide Brokers,

This is unquestionably one of the most challenging times in the annals of mortgage lending. As such, this communication is the first of a series that will outline how Countrywide , America's
Wholesale Lender is navigating through this challenging market. Additionally, it is my desire that these ongoing communications will share some perspective that will help you to adapt and
prosper in the current mortgage lending environment.

Countrywide in the News
First, I would like to take a moment to address some recent developments that have strengthened our ability to serve both you and your borrowers.

 

Bank of America Investment in Countrywide

 

On August 22, Bank of America invested $2 billion in Countrywide in the form of non-voting, convertible preferred securities. It is important to note that this is an investment in, and not an acquisition of Countrywide. Bank of America does not have representation on Countrywide's board or a management role in the company. The investment is a true vote of confidence in Countrywide from the largest retail banking franchise in the nation. It strengthens our balance sheet and benefits all of Countrywide's constituents including our Business Partners.

 

Additional Funding Liquidity - We have recently drawn upon credit facilities provided by a syndicate of 40 of the world's largest banks, which provided an infusion of $11.5 billion to supplement Countrywide's liquidity.

 

Mortgage Business Migration

 

We recently announced that we have accelerated our long-held plans to migrate our mortgage business into Countrywide Bank which has over $100 billion in assets. We are executing this migration as quickly as possible and do not expect it to materially change the way we operate, our key strategies, or our continuing goal to be the dominant lender in the wholesale channel.
Now that I've outlined the steps taken to strengthen Countrywide's franchise, let's turn our
attention to the current market environment.

 

Secondary Market Driving Change

 

 

Further complicating an already tough real estate and lending environment is one

of the weakest secondary markets in history. The result is that there is limited demand for mortgages or mortgage-backed bonds other than what is commonly referred to as
the "agency" execution (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac). Despite this disruption in the
secondary market, substantial lenders like Countrywide, with access to a bank balance
sheet, are well positioned to succeed.

 

In an effort to address the above challenges, Countrywide, along with the rest of the industry, has been revising product guidelines and pricing policy on an ongoing basis.
It is likely that these areas will continue to change so I urge you to check cwbc.com frequently to ensure that you have our most updated guideline and pricing information.

 

 

Channel Dynamics
Another challenge facing the wholesale lending channel is that the mortgage industry has shifted toward a retail bias. Why? There are many factors. However, one of the major causes
is that loans originated and processed on a retail basis generally perform better than third
party originations where an intermediary originates and processes the loan on behalf of the
lender. While this bias may seem daunting to your business, it is a challenge that can be
overcome with a simple formula - everyone involved in the wholesale lending channel must
work to improve the performance of third party originated loans. By consistently elevating
borrower and loan quality, we can, over time, bring the market back to parity. Your best
source for ensuring loan quality is to work closely with your Account Representative and
branch or fulfillment center to assist in properly documenting all loan submissions consistent
with lending guidelines and loan approval conditions.

 

In addition, it is imperative that you adopt (or continue) the proven "best practice" of
presenting your borrowers with a full array of product and pricing options. Your focus
should be on allowing them to make truly informed decisions that best meet their financing
needs and ability to re-pay. This practice will not only ensure a long term relationship with your customer but is part and parcel of ensuring high quality loans and good performance.

 

 

Our Ongoing Commitment to the Channel
As stated in the opening of this communication, all of us who earn our living in the wholesale lending arena are facing challenging times; times that require us to work together to achieve a common goal - successfully evolving the wholesale lending channel.

 

Our focus at Countrywide remains constant - working with and supporting only those brokers who can adapt and evolve their business model and who can originate quality loans consistent
with our strengthened lending standards. None of us should ever contemplate doing a loan we
wouldn't be willing to fund with our own money.

 

When navigating the current waters, keep in mind that, for over 23 years, Countrywide, America's Wholesale Lender has been fervently committed to the wholesale channel and to the success of our Business Partners. We maintain a strong leadership position and focus on achieving a dominant status among wholesale lenders.

 

Thank you for your time and attention to these important matters.

 

Todd A. Dal Porto
Senior Managing Director &; President
Countrywide, America's Wholesale Lender

 

*******************************************************************************

 

Some salient points in this letter. It points out that a disproportionate share of the the loans going into default came from 3rd party originators. There were certainly a great number of mortgage brokers who would originate a loan to anyone with a pulse and a FICO score 620 or higher but they have, as a rule, gone by the wayside.

 

Most of the large lenders are shifting away from the wholesale brokers to focus on retail sales; they have greater influence on employees than independent brokers and the hope is that they will only be originating loans within guidelines and not try to get so-called "liar loans" funded.

 

With that said, I personally believe that independent mortgage brokers are a critical component in the real estate industry providing a slew of options that may not be available from a captive broker. My personal go-to guy when I am concerned about a deal getting through is an independent broker and he has yet to let me down. I also enjoy strong business relationships with loan officers from the majors - every deal is different and my clients deserve to have choices when deciding which program is best for them.

 

If you are currently involved in a real estate transaction on either the buy or sell side, stay focused on the lender and the loan. It is still very volatile and there are deals that are falling apart at the last minute because people are not keeping their eyes on the ball and communicating with the lender on a daily/weekly basis. Conforming and even Non-Conforming (with large down payments, strong FICO's and reserves) are going through without a lot of drama.

 

100% financing (Good Luck) and deals with less than 20% down should be monitored closely throughout the escrow process.

 

I received and email this morning asking why, as a Realtor, I was spending so much time talking about mortgages. My answer was without mortgages we have no sales. If your Realtor isn't talking about mortgages right now you may want to ask why not.

Still No Good Housing Market News

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housing-market.jpg

Nearly half of cities see home prices fall

It's housing whiplash: The boom is biting back in the places where it ran highest and fastest just a couple of years ago, a government report for the second quarter shows.

Nationally, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) said prices were essentially flat, growing just 0.1% from April through June, and nearly half of cities profiled showed declines for the quarter. Not since 1994 have home prices grown so little over a quarter.

Compared with a year ago, prices were up 3.2%. But that number reveals nothing about the recent mortgage market turmoil, whose influence will show up in third-quarter numbers, revealed in late November. Also, the OFHEO index, while prized for its scope -- it tracks prices in 287 metro areas -- can appear rosier than some other instruments because it does not contain refinances or mortgages larger than $417,000.

Of those 287 metro areas, 131 showed price declines for the quarter. Over the past four quarters, 61 areas reflect declines. But over five years, no metro area shows up in the red.

"These newest data show price declines in many areas that were once at the center of the housing boom," said OFHEO chief economist Patrick Lawler. The worst declines were in California, Florida and Nevada, all centers of huge housing booms until recently, and in Michigan, which is reeling from epic job losses.

Best and worst

The biggest decline was in the Merced, Calif., area. Homes there lost 8.65% of their value over this time last year and 3.76% from the past quarter. Merced's experience underscores Lawler's point: Even with the whiplash correction, Merced prices show growth of nearly 90% in the last five years.

Runners-up for the biggest decline included the California metro areas in and around Santa Barbara, Stockton, Salinas, Modesto, Yuba City, Sacramento, Santa Rosa, Santa Cruz, San Luis Obispo, Oxnard and Vallejo, and Reno, Nev., in the California orbit. Prices dived in Florida communities in and around Punta Gorda, Sarasota, Cape Coral, Palm Bay, Port St. Lucie and West Palm Beach.

Smaller cities in the West and Northwest were the stage for much of the best price growth last quarter. Topped by Wenatchee, Wash.'s nearly 24% yearly price increase -- 5% for the quarter and nearly 80% growth in five years, the fastest growth areas were dominated by Washington, Utah, Colorado, Oregon and Texas. The list also includes cities in Alabama, the Carolinas, Virginia, Mississippi and Pennsylvania.

The OFHEO report tracks data from the previous quarter, but there has been nothing in the interim to suggest that prices have stopped slowing, "I don't know if we are going to go into a steep decline or just keep coasting to the bottom," says Amy Crews Cutts, the deputy chief economist at Freddie Mac. "Stabilization is key."

Cutts has been surprised by the downturn's persistence. "I had originally been thinking (it would end in) the middle of this year." But the August financial crisis probably has pushed any recovery "into 2008," and that's "predicated on the financial markets getting their act together pretty quickly."

Bad news mounts

Other news underscores the seriousness of the downturn:

  • The National Association of Realtors reported last week that median price of existing homes fell in July to $228,900 -- a 0.6% drop from the previous month and the fifth straight monthly decline. The volume of house sales hasn't been this low in nearly five years.
  • The widely respected Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller Home Price Index shows that prices fell 3.2% on average in the second quarter. It was the biggest drop recorded in the report's 20-year history. Unlike OFHEO, Case-Shiller includes "jumbo" loans over $417,000 not held by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. The report tracks prices in 20 cities and found prices declining in 17 of them.
  • Inventory -- the supply of single-family homes on the market -- is at 9.2 months nationally, which is to say it would normally take that long for the backup to sell. Nearly a year's supply of condos is currently on the market. Inventories in a balanced market run at about six months, says Walt Molony of the National Association of Realtors. "During much of the boom we averaged 4.5 months," he says. The low point, in January 2005, was 3.6 months.
  • Mounting defaults and foreclosures have inspired North Carolina, Ohio, Minnesota and Maine limit subprime lending. Others are trying to help borrowers refinance. The New York Times reports that in about 30 states lawmakers have introduced nearly 100 bills to curb deceptive lending and foreclosures.

Bubble theorists are growing louder in the insistence that prices must revert all the way to pre-boom levels before a recovery begins. Bruce Marks, the CEO of the Neighborhood Assistance Corporation of America, believes prices could drop 10%, 15% or even, in some places, 25%.

"You are not seeing bubbles bursting in certain parts of the country -- you are seeing a nationwide decline," says Marks, whose nonprofit advocacy organization lends to lower-income buyers.

Cutts discounts that view. It would take a catastrophe like the Great Depression to see that kind of thing, she says. "I know it feels like the sky is falling. It's bad out there." But she says sales of new and existing homes are down 20% in the past two years, more resembling pre-boom 2001 than the 1930s.

Sobered

Although few analysts share the extent of Marks' pessimism, but plenty are sobered by the past quarter's performance. The trend "is horrible," Ian Shepherdson, the chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics told his newsletter readers, adding, "the market is "much worse than headline sales numbers suggest -- and still deteriorating."

Robert J. Shiller, the chief economist at MacroMarkets and originator of the Case-Shiller system of market analysis, said in a news release that "the pullback in the U.S. residential real estate market is showing no signs of slowing down."

The research firm Global Insight told The New York Times to expect a decline of 4%, roughly 10% after inflation, from this year's peak to a low in 2009. The company forecasts prices in California to drop 16% to 20%, counting inflation.

Cutts is not sanguine about the near term, either. She sees potential for more subprime mortgages failing. Currently, most delinquencies are in Northeastern industrial cities plagued with layoffs and poor economies.

Most risky loans, however, are concentrated on the coasts. There, housing became so unaffordable that large numbers of borrowers purchased time-bomb subprime loans that they could only temporarily afford to repay -- for houses they could not realistically support.

Already, 2.9% of subprime loans issued just last year are in default. That's alarmingly high, Cutts says, and an unprecedented number of borrowers are not making even the first few payments.

A variety of regional problems

For signs of recovery, look to New England, where economic activity appears to be increasing. Cutts expects that, before too long, prices will hit bottom and at least stabilize. Boston was first, in 2006, to show falling prices from year to year, and, with the region's strong, diversified economy, Cutts and other economists are watching it for signs that it also could lead the way back.

Regions hardest hit by falling prices are Florida, the northern industrial cities of the Midwest in Michigan and parts of Ohio, Illinois and Indiana, and the once-white-hot growth markets of the arid West, including parts of Nevada, Arizona and California.

Housing in the former industrial Rust Belt will take extra long to recover. "Job losses were so deep that it's going to take a modern miracle to show a turnaround there," Cutts says.

The housing scene in the arid West is troubling, particularly in California, she says. That's where the riskiest mortgages were sold to feed demand as prices soared to record levels. California foreclosures still aren't showing up in massive numbers, but they're increasing surprisingly fast, she says, particularly among the riskiest of the mortgages, issued just last year.

In San Diego and fast-growing inland cities, the economic pressure from collapsing housing prices may become exacerbated by job losses in the subprime-mortgage industry, making it harder for housing to pull out of the tailspin.

"As the lenders go down, they fire a lot of people," says Cutts. "I saw that 40,000 mortgage-related jobs (nationally) have been lost this year. There are a lot of subprime lenders headquartered in California."

Mike Inselmann is concerned about California, too -- and Florida and maybe even Nevada. The co-founder of the housing market research firm American Metro/Study says that despite strong economies, these markets have "more serious issues."

He blames local regulatory obstacles to growth for creating a housing scarcity, especially in California, where the strong economy was driving housing demand.

"Everything got disconnected between supply and demand and pricing," he says, and as a result, he says, prices were pushed artificially high. That invited speculation, flipping, risky lending and, eventually, overbuilding.

The collapse was inevitable. Then, the coup de grace: "The breath was knocked out of the whole marketplace when the subprime deal blew up in April and May, and that whole thing has reached hysterical levels of fear."

Discretionary buyers step back

Florida's cosmopolitan appeal has amplified its troubles from overbuilding and run-up prices: The real estate market is a haven for Latin Americans with discretionary cash as well as a magnet for northern retirees and workers anticipating retirement. As prices rose, these discretionary buyers retreated, leaving legions of empty homes to too few local buyers. "When the chill enters the marketplace, those people can sit on their hands (and wait)," Inselmann explains.

Las Vegas, a similar market on the other side of the country, still is growing, just more slowly. Now 5,000 newcomers arrive monthly, many for casino jobs; before, it was 7,000. The city is awash in new condos that investors had hoped to flip or chose not to keep. They compete with even-newer developments coming on line, says Mark Weinberg, who's been an agent there for Prudential Americana Group Realtors for 13 years.

"I gotta be honest," he says. "I've seen the inventory extend out; I've seen people, unfortunately, losing their homes." A home that used to sell in three or four months now takes four to seven months or more. Weinberg's wife, a loan officer, lost a job when her employer went bankrupt.

Builders concentrated on million-dollar condos aimed at out-of-towners, leaving a paucity of homes for working people, say analysts. As in Florida, "the rich people are suddenly saying, 'You know, I don't need a condo in Vegas right now,' " says Cutts, of Freddie Mac.

But Las Vegas always reinvents itself, Weinberg says. With "job growth consistently every month, population growth every month, very low unemployment and money still pouring into development on The Strip," he is anticipating a recovery by late 2008.

Cutts, too, has the end in sight. "If homes are being bought for the long run, housing is still a very good deal," says Cutts. Eventually, values will return, she adds. After the collapse of the Southern California defense industry in the early 1990s, prices took 10 years to reach previous levels.

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Banking/HomebuyingGuide/HomePriceReport.aspx?GT1=10329