The Federal Reserve may Want Inflation

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As inflationary pressures increase, the Fed may not be able to tighten monetary policy out of fear that the fragile financial system may be unable to cope with a restrictive monetary policy.

By Axel Merk,

We are now importing inflation. This does not only apply to the cost of commodities, such as oil, but also to consumer goods imported from Asia. This is a newer trend as, in our analysis, Asia had been exporting deflation until the summer of 2006; since then, we have seen increased pricing power by Asian exporters.

Inflation is not just a U.S. phenomenon; as Asian economies are far more dependent on agricultural and industrial commodities, rising inflation may become a serious concern in the region. The stronger and more prudent Asian central banks may realize that allowing their currencies to float higher versus the U.S. dollar may be the most effective way to combat inflationary pressures.

Available credit is likely to continue to be tight. In a move former Federal Reserve ("Fed") Chairman Paul Volcker referred to as being at "the very edge" of the Fed's legal authority, the Fed engineered a bailout plan to avoid bankruptcy for Bear Stearns, up until recently a major investment bank. It was followed by moves to allow investment banks not regulated by the Fed to swap 'investment grade securities' with Treasury securities. Basically, this allows financial institutions to turn illiquid reserves into liquid ones to survive. However, because the Treasury securities are merely loans against the collateral provided, banks continue to own a lot of securities that - in our assessment - should rather not be used as reserve capital. As a result, banks may be reluctant to extend credit out of fear that their balance sheets continue to be weak. Similarly, banks may continue to be reluctant to extend overnight loans to one another. In our assessment, these emergency measures by the Fed prolong the credit contraction. To get through the credit crisis, we believe regulators should apply far more pressure on financial institutions to find substantially new capital, replacing questionable reserves with good ones. While a lot of progress has been made, the terms of any capital infusions that we have seen suggest to us that a lot more work is ahead for the banks.

This is relevant to the U.S. dollar because the lack of available credit is a negative for economic growth; because of the U.S. current account deficit, the U.S. dollar is particularly vulnerable to an economic slowdown. This is in contrast to Europe, where an economic slowdown may not be a positive for the currency, but because the current account is reasonably balanced within, say, the euro-zone, an economic slowdown need not directly translate into a weaker euro. Add to that the more solid monetary policy by the European Central Bank ("ECB"); ECB president Trichet has said that during times of turbulence, it is imperative that inflationary expectations remain firmly anchored. Just as importantly, his words have been followed by action, namely by not cutting interest rates as a result of the global credit crisis. We have been a vocal critic of interest rate cuts in the U.S. because, in our assessment, they do much more harm than good: subprime borrowers or holders of illiquid debt instruments are shunned from the markets in the current environment because of general risk aversion, not because of the level of interest rates. Lower interest rates, however, may cause inflationary pressures to build further and may cause further downward pressure on the dollar.

In this context, we conclude that it may well be in the Fed's interest to have a weak dollar. This is consistent with what we interpret to be Fed chairman Ben Bernanke's disliking of the gold standard. In his book "Essays on the Great Depression", Bernanke argues that countries that abandoned the gold standard recovered from the Depression more quickly. Similarly, based on our analysis of his academic publications before becoming Fed chairman, we believe that Bernanke may actively work to weaken the U.S. dollar in what he may consider an effort to alleviate hardship on the people. The Fed may be encouraged to pursue a weaker dollar because, in the past, a weaker dollar did not necessarily result in higher inflation. However, this does not mean that actively pursuing a weaker dollar will not cause significantly higher inflation. We are seeing signs that the weaker dollar is taking a heavy toll on inflation as import prices are up about 15% in the 12 months ending March 31, 2008; while high oil prices are contributing to inflationary pressures, prices are higher across goods, services and geographies.

As inflationary pressures increase, the Fed may not be able to tighten monetary policy out of fear that the fragile financial system may be unable to cope with a restrictive monetary policy. Indeed, we believe the Fed seems to encourage inflation to allow financial institutions to repair their balance sheets. In our assessment, the Fed would welcome inflation in the current environment, despite their public pronouncements to the contrary, as long as it was uniform, i.e. if there was also wage inflation.

We manage the Merk Hard and Asian Currency Funds, mutual funds seeking to profit from a potential decline in the dollar by investing in baskets of hard and Asian currencies, respectively. To learn more about the Fund, or to subscribe to our free newsletter, please visit www.merkfund.com.

Axel Merk
Manager of the Merk Hard Currency Fund, www.merkfund.com.

The Merk Hard Currency Fund is a no-load mutual fund that invests in a basket of hard currencies from countries with strong monetary policies assembled to protect against the depreciation of the U.S. dollar relative to other currencies. The Fund may serve as a valuable diversification component as it seeks to protect against a decline in the dollar while potentially mitigating stock market, credit and interest risks—with the ease of investing in a mutual fund.

The Fund may be appropriate for you if you are pursuing a long-term goal with a hard currency component to your portfolio; are willing to tolerate the risks associated with investments in foreign currencies; or are looking for a way to potentially mitigate downside risk in or profit from a secular bear market. For more information on the Fund and to download a prospectus, please visit www.merkfund.com.

Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks and charges and expenses of the Merk Hard Currency Fund carefully before investing. This and other information is in the prospectus, a copy of which may be obtained by visiting the Fund's website at www.merkfund.com or calling 866-MERK FUND. Please read the prospectus carefully before you invest.

The Fund primarily invests in foreign currencies and as such, changes in currency exchange rates will affect the value of what the Fund owns and the price of the Fund’s shares. Investing in foreign instruments bears a greater risk than investing in domestic instruments for reasons such as volatility of currency exchange rates and, in some cases, limited geographic focus, political and economic instability, and relatively illiquid markets. The Fund is subject to interest rate risk which is the risk that debt securities in the Fund’s portfolio will decline in value because of increases in market interest rates. As a non-diversified fund, the Fund will be subject to more investment risk and potential for volatility than a diversified fund because its portfolio may, at times, focus on a limited number of issuers. The Fund may also invest in derivative securities which can be volatile and involve various types and degrees of risk. For a more complete discussion of these and other Fund risks please refer to the Fund’s prospectus.

The views in this article were those of Axel Merk as of the newsletter's publication date and may not reflect his views at any time thereafter. These views and opinions should not be construed as investment advice nor considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy shares of any securities mentioned herein. Mr. Merk is the founder and president of Merk Investments LLC and is the portfolio manager for the Merk Hard Currency Fund. Foreside Fund Services, LLC, distributor.

Standard and Poor’s Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

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Inflate or Die!

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The more debt (money) these central planners issue the more they cream off the top. Debt is to the non-Federal non-Reserve as chicken is to KFC. One franchise is just an order of magnitude, more elite than the other.

By Dr. Russell McDougal

The Federal Reserve has been on the US scenes since 1913. Not even Biblical plagues lasted 95 years. The ultimate effects aren’t much different. The Fed may or may not make it to a centennial commiseration. They are on the ropes.

It is beyond comical to watch all the various pundits applaud the Fed’s action as they piece together bailouts and desperately cheap money. Those who cheer them are nothing more than apologists for a crooked and predatory monetary system. Maybe it would be wise to look deeply and understand that this “ultimate private franchise” is the root cause of the problems they are getting credit for patching up??

The elitist international bankers who own the Fed are inflators by charter. They are licensed by Congress to supply what we use as money. Here’s their historic report card:

One of the Fed’s mandates is “stable prices”. A shrinking and shrinking dollar won’t get that job done. That looks like an F from this angle, even if you grade on the curve.

Pretty clever of them for sure. How exactly did they accomplish such an extraordinary feat?

Yep, they issued unfathomable debt. This pleases the politicians. Well connected cronies are thrilled. Individual recipients of the funny money are certainly pleased. Too bad our future generations have to pay these debts. Or do they?

Both of these above charts are from “Your US Dollar Ain’t Worth a plug Nickel”. I’m not quite old enough to know what a ‘plug nickel’ is but the illustration gives a strong hint.

The more debt (money) these central planners issue the more they cream off the top. Debt is to the non-Federal non-Reserve as chicken is to KFC. One franchise is just an order of magnitude, more elite than the other.

Would you like to see an example of what happens when inflation fails?

This is an example of a decade of falling real estate and stock prices from Japanese history. It is a clear cut demonstration of the ravages of deflation. Central bankers have nightmares about such scenarios. This is what happens when fiat money freezes up.

Japanese banks didn’t stop making money available. They were practically giving it away with itty bitty interest rates (under one percent). They tried and tried to “stimulate” their economy. Nothing worked. The populace refused to borrow and spend.

The US economy is based on fiat dollars. Our ‘good times’ are typically nothing more than a credit expansion. Citizens duped into trying to borrow their way to prosperity. Goofy Fed Heads encouraging the peons to buy Suburbans. True prosperity is based on production, savings and capital investments. Big difference.

Debt equates to slavery.

You can have deflation in one sector of the economy at the same time as inflation in a different sector. US real estate has been deflating for nigh on two years now. Commodities have been the recent recipients of inflationary policies.

There is now a raging battle in the US between the forces of deflation and those of inflation. Bailouts, handouts, tax rebates and Japanese style interest rates are pure attempts at inflation. Call it monetary debasement if you will.

The game is to inflate or die.

When you buy honest forms of money, like gold and silver, you protect yourself from a potential financial disaster.

Invest Resourcefully,

Rusty

© Copyright Early to Rise, LLC., 2008

Redfin releases a genuinely interesting update!

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According to their press release, they are now commingling MLS, FSBO and Foreclosure listings on one map... and this has me scratching my head!

Are they allowed to do this?   Isn't this type of commingling of listings against MLS rules?

redfin search in woodland hills

Notice the purple and pink icons... Those are REO (foreclosures) and FSBOs, respectively (green icons are MLS listings).

I have four ideas about how they are able to get away with this:

  1. They found a loophole in MLS agreements that let's them commingle listings (but I would find this hard to believe).
  2. They got buy-off from all their local MLS organizations (but I would find this hard to believe)
  3. They have reason to believe they can win this battle in the courts...  (maybe a DOJ brief in support of this or something similar?)
  4. They just don't care about the rules and believe that consumer support for this feature will be so great that they'll risk MLS fines.

None of these scenarios seem likely to me.  What am I missing?

With that said, I REALLY like how they are approaching the foreclosure data.   I've received a few press releases recently from real estate search sites that "announce" they are now publishing foreclosures on their site.   However, inevitably, when I tested out the feature,  the sites were just regurgitating RealtyTrac data that required consumers to pay a fee to get the actual address of the property.   Redfin is providing the address.

Also interesting, someone from Redfin let me know that they are going to phase in a flat-fee buying option in order to accommodate these new listings types.

I want to send my congrats out to the Redfin team for pushing the boundaries yet again.  Love 'em or hate 'em, they're working pretty darn hard to deliver features and tools that they think will do a better job serving their customers.

Ron Paul Night Talk Bloomberg TV 04/29/2008 (YouTube)

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Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

Dave Barry Explains the Tax Rebate

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The good news is that the Federal government is sending a little tax-free money back to us. Never look a gift horse in the mouth, especially when it's coming from the horse thief who stole it from you.

By Gary North

LewRockwell.com

The tax rebate of 2008, which is scheduled to begin this week when the first checks go into the mail, is the latest example of American mercantilism in action. I did my best to explain American mercantilism in the April 26 issue of Gary North's Reality Check. There, I explained modern Keynesian economics as the American version of mercantilism.

My article, "Climbing of China's Paper Money Tiger," warned that the United States has adopted the Keynesian version of mercantilism: national consumption without production. It is a perfect match for China's more traditional mercantilism, national production without consumption. You can read my analysis here.

While I do my best to make economics clear, I am no match for America's most beloved retired humorist, Dave Barry. Breaking his book royalty-based silence, he has offered a stunningly brilliant insight into the likely economic effects of the 2008 tax rebate, which is called an Economic Stimulus Payment. I can do no better than to quote him verbatim.

Q. What is an Economic Stimulus Payment? A. It is money that the federal government will send to taxpayers.

Q. Where will the government get this money?

A. From taxpayers.

Q. So the government is giving me back my own money?

A. Only a smidgen.

Q. What is the purpose of this payment?

A. The plan is that you will use the money to purchase a high-definition TV set, thus stimulating the economy.

Q. But isn't that stimulating the economy of China?

A. Shut up.

In presenting this analysis, he offered neither a graph nor an equation. He will therefore not receive the 2009 Nobel Prize in Economic Science and the $1.6 million economic stimulus payment it brings. But his analysis, I predict, will turn out to be far more relevant and unquestionably more coherent than any analysis ever offered by next year's prize winner.

GOOD NEWS AND BAD NEWS

The good news is that the Federal government is sending a little tax-free money back to us. Never look a gift horse in the mouth, especially when it's coming from the horse thief who stole it from you.

The bad news is that this money will be borrowed. Every penny will be added to the on-budget debt of the United States government.

What is the estimated deficit today for fiscal 2008? This figure is buried in the recently released report, "The Cyclically Adjusted and Standardized Budget Estimates" (April 2008). The figure is $361 billion. A year ago, it was $162 billion (Table 1, p. 3).

Next year, the CBO estimates, the deficit will be a mere $133 billion. Write that figure down in your diary of accounting illusions. (The phrase "Arthur Andersen" comes to mind.)

On March 12, the Treasury made its estimate: $410 billion. This was the same as in February.

These are large figures. We are only in the early stage of a recession. It has barely begun to raise the unemployment rate. Yet consumer confidence is at the lowest level since the recession of 1982 (Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers). Recall that 1982 was the year of the low point of the Dow: 777 (August). Today's loss of confidence has not yet affected the stock market significantly. Optimism still reigns among most stock market investors.

As the deficit soars, which it will, the government will absorb more resources that would have gone into the private sector. This is denied by Keynesians and some monetarists, but this process is obvious. In a recession, investors seek safety. They want to protect themselves against falling stocks and bankrupt corporations. They buy Federal government-issued debt on the assumption that the Federal government will not default in a recession. This money does not go to fund private capital.

This is bad for the economy but good – in the short run – for investors. Because the government is involved, we get the reverse of Bernard Mandeville's pathbreaking book and poem, Fable of the Bees: Private Vices, Public Benefits (1714). We get private benefits and public vices.

PRIVATE SPENDING

I am in favor of tax-free rebates from the Federal government – any time, any place, any amount. Just send out the checks. The taxpayers can do better things with their money than the Federal government can.

So, I am in favor of Federal deficits, if the alternative is higher taxes. I am in favor of lower taxes, even if these lead to higher deficits. I think the Federal government will not cut spending for any reason but one: bankruptcy. So, as long as the beast is going to spend money, it might as well raise it by borrowing. Let the people who trust the government wind up as creditors to the government. When the government defaults, one way or the other, those hurt most will be those who trusted politicians the most. This is as it should be. There is a kind of raw justice in the arrangement.

The assumption of the politicians and Keynesian economists is that what is needed is consumer spending. But why shouldn't taxpayers put their money into savings? Why not fund the private sector? The hostility of Keynesians to thrift is legendary. They believe that consumption stimulates the economy. They ignore what economists had argued for two centuries before Keynes (except for Mandeville, a dentist): (1) consumption comes from prior production; (2) production comes from an increased supply of capital; (3) so, an increase in the supply of capital leads to increased consumption.

Will the rebate recipients save most of the money? Probably not. They will pay their bills. The best we can reasonably hope for is that they pay off their credit card debt or other forms of non-mortgage debt. This will get them out of the habit of borrowing to buy consumer goods. But people today are emotional Keynesians, even if they have never heard of Keynes. They believe in spending their way to wealth.

The politicians know their marks. They assume that a large percentage of voters will use this money to buy consumer goods and services. They assume, as Keynesians always assume, that consumer spending will stimulate the U.S. economy. This will provide profits for retailers. It will convince producers to produce even more.

But why should producers produce any more? This is a one-shot rebate. Spending will reduce inventories of unsold goods, but it will not convince producers to order more raw materials, hire more workers, or cut back on their cutbacks.

Retailers around the country are offering deals for shoppers with a little extra money in their bank accounts. How much money are we talking about? In total, about $106 billion. The expectation is that over $40 billion will go directly into the retail sector.

To imagine that this will in some significant way roll back the recession is grasping at economic straws. But the vote was mainly about grasping at political straws. It was one more example of politicians' unwillingness to sit there and do nothing, meaning spend nothing. This, they will not do. They did not want to go into the November election with a target on each of their backs: "He did nothing to fight the recession."

WHAT TO DO WITH THE MONEY

On March 8, I sent out this report in my weekly "Tip of the Week."

What is the best thing to do with your income tax refund, i.e., the return of your enforced, interest-free "loan" to the U.S. Treasury? If you have any credit card debt, pay off principal.

If you have no credit card debt, pay down some other debt, other than your mortgage.

If you have no debt to pay down, make a contribution to your IRA.

If you are maxed out on your IRA, set the money aside in a special bank account for your next car repair or new tires. This way, you can avoid charging this to your credit card. If you can get an extra year out of your car, you can defer purchasing a new car for another year. (Do this for the next five years. Then buy a used car.)

What you should not do is use any of the money to fund a consumer purchase. The money should be used to pay down non-tax-deductible debt, if you have any, or increase a thrift account.

I realize that this isn't much fun. But recessions are not much fun except for entrepreneurs with cash reserves who buy distressed property.

CONCLUSION

Keynes was wrong. What we need is less government spending. But since we're going to get it, no matter what we do or how we vote, let's give Keynesian politicians two cheers for the rebate. The money is better in our bank accounts than the government's bank account.

The government will spend every dime that comes in. It is buying votes, and it is always in that market spending whatever it can beg, borrow, or steal.

We will spend the money, too. The question is: On what? On the future.

Fifty years ago, Mort Sahl revolutionized American comedy with his album, The Future Lies Ahead. He could have easily gotten his basic idea across with the addition of a colon: The Future: Lies Ahead. The biggest lie of all is that the government is competent to spend our money better than we can.

So, enjoy your rebate. Do something useful with it. Save it.

April 30, 2008

Gary North [send him mail] is the author of Mises on Money. Visit http://www.garynorth.com. He is also the author of a free 20-volume series, An Economic Commentary on the Bible.

Copyright © 2008 LewRockwell.com

Gary North Archives

Chris Cantell Discusses Real-Estate: 60 percent Amerianov si nekúpi dom v najbliich dvoch rokoch! by Milota Sidorova

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60 percent americkch vlastníkov nehnuteností sa obáva kúpy realít poas nasledujúcich dvoch rokov. Jeden zo siedmych cíti, e za súasnch podmienok by nemusel zvládnu mesané hypotekárne splátky. Takmer 30 percent je presvedench o tom, e hodnota nehnuteností bude neustále klesa, tvrdí nedávno zverejnen prieskum americkej spolonosti Associated Press-AOL Money & Finance.
Dvojznané pocity vyvolané minuloronou krízou medzi vlastníkmi zjavne nevyprchali, ba naopak, zdá sa, e udia sa za súasného stavu obávajú investova. V porovnaní s prieskumom z roku 2006 sa poet tch, ktorí iste neplánujú kúpi iadnu nehnutenos zvil z 53 percent na 60. Fakt, e ponuka ete stále niekoko násobne prevyuje dopyt, a obava z nenávratnosti investícií sa prejavujú ako vznamné znaky prehlbujúcej sa krízy.
V roku 2006 ete 15 percent optanch plánovalo kúpu nehnutenosti. Poda terajieho prieskumu je to len 11 percent. Pri súasnch trhovch podmienkach sa stáva aj vlastníctvo u nadobudnutej nehnutenosti takmer luxusnou záleitosou. A to nespomíname investície ako predaj alebo kúpa. Poda prieskumu iba 10 percent respondentov oznailo svoje hypotekárne splátky ako prijatené. Predaj nehnutenosti sa pri neustálej inflácií, rekordnej nezamestnanosti a oraz vyích cenách pohonnch palív rovná nespochybnitenej finannej strate.
Ameriania oakávajú, celkové zníenie hodnoty nehnuteností, zárove vak narastajúce ceny pozemkov. Najvyie ceny by mali zasiahnú pozemky na juhu, zatia o západ by sa mal cenovo ustáli, a klesnú. Poda väiny respondentov je viac ako polovica domov na severovchodnom pobreí predraená.
A hoci nie je dobr as na predaj, je urite dobr as na kúpu, tvrdia viacerí pozorovatelia. Prirodzene, pokia ste schopní obchod financova z vlastnch zdrojov, nie pomocou hypotéky. Je treba prizna, e táto situácia môe vhody prinie len tm najbohatím. Zvyok majiteov musí nadaej znáa zvyujúce sa hypotekárne úroky na ich prepadajúce sa ceny domov.
Posledné desaroie sa do histórie zapísalo ako zlatá éra trhu s realitami. Poda Gusa Fauchera, riaditea makroekonómov poradenskej spolonosti Moody's Economy.com, takmer 9 miliónov majiteov nehnuteností zarobilo ich investovaním niekoko násobne viac, ne bola ich skutoná cena. Tvrdí, e kríza by mala svoje dno dosiahnú v priebehu nasledujúcich mesiacov, priom neoakáva zlepenie skôr ne zaiatkom nového roka.
Niektorí analytici tvrdia, e dôsledky americkej krízy by mali európske trhy zasiahnú v priebehu tohoto roka.

related story: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080414/ap_on_bi_ge/housing_crisis_ap_poll;_ylt=Ag8LeHXF7TU6x.6z0G7la46s0NUE


by Milota Sidorova
for PocketNews (http://pocketnews.tv)


PocketNews is a new real-time news broadcaster delivering the latest and hottest news right to your pocket ! With global clients who want to be kept up to date, PocketNews is everyone's way of keeping in touch with the World.

These news are brought to you by CantellTV, its technology partner SigEx Telecom and its founder Chris Cantell. CantellTV is the fastest growing provider of digital broadcasting coupled with enhanced communications, allowing people to easily control, view, upload and share digital content through proprietary interface. CantellTV has relationships with a growing network of international clients delivering millions of videos per day with more than 50,000 new videos uploaded and 200 hours of new TV shows broadcasted daily to a wide range of viewers, from 5 to 7 year olds of LiveCartoons; to 16 to 24 year old active social users of MyJumps; to fortune 50 corporate clients utilizing enhanced broadcasting services. CantellTV is committed to delivering infinite choices to your world of entertainment at the tip of your fingers. Chris Cantell retains consulting arrangements with several pre-IPO companies.

Edited by: Katarina Bosanska

Chris Cantell Discusses Real-Estate: Maly krok v Amerike Lenka Lehenova

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Cely svet vie, ze Amerika, ktora bola najsilnejsou krajinou, je stale v ekonomickej priepasti. Mnozstvo ekonomov a analytikov sa tam snazi vyriesit tento problem a pomoct americkym obyvatelom. V skutocnosti su to prave oni, ktori najviac trpia, pretoze recesia je pricinou mnozstva problemov. Tato situacia tam ovplyvnuje more faktorov, pretoze kazdy z nich zavisi jeden na druhom.Trh s nehnutelnostami je tiez jedna z oblasti, ktora je ovplyvnena Americkou priepastou. Sucasna situacia nie je velmi dobra, lebo tento trh s nehnutelnostami neustale klesa. Kazdy, najma vlada sa snazi ukludnit upadajuci trh a najst nejake to riesenie. Je potrebne pomoct milionom rodinam, ktore trpia vyvlastnenim. Minuly tyzden, Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., odhalil navrh, ktory obsahuje mix napadov a navrhov pre pomoc domovym vlastnikom a zaroven sa vyhnut vyvlastneniu. Samozrejme, ze ak im chcu pomoct, budu na to potrebovat peniaze. Tento plan obsahuje 4 biliony dolarov v grante. Sposob ako by ich vlada mohla vyuzit je kupit a renovovat vyvlastnene domy. Tiez budu pouzite na refinancovanie hypotekok a pomoc 7 000 dolarov v danovom dobropise pomoze ludom, ktori planuju kupit novy dom alebo inu nehnutelnost.V situaciach, ked je potrebne najst nejake riesenie, je velmi dolezite nejakym sposobom zacat. Aj ked vlada vie, ze existuje o mnoho viac problemov, ktore su nevyhnutne vyriesit alebo dokoncit a tento krok nie je az taky velky na to aby vyriesil tuto situaciu alebo nejako vyrazne to ovplyvnil, je to maly krok, ale tou spravnou cestou. V kazdom pripade si myslim, ze male kroky alebo zmeny su tymi najdolezitejsimi pre riesenia, pretoze musi byt vybudovany pevny a silny zaklad.

related story: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080402/ap_on_go_co/congress_housing;_ylt=Aub0DWIJ4WsnF1MYbv_nWZis0NUE


by Lenka Lehenova
for PocketNews (http://pocketnews.tv)


PocketNews is a new real-time news broadcaster delivering the latest and hottest news right to your pocket ! With global clients who want to be kept up to date, PocketNews is everyone's way of keeping in touch with the World.

These news are brought to you by CantellTV, its technology partner SigEx Telecom and its founder Chris Cantell. CantellTV is the fastest growing provider of digital broadcasting coupled with enhanced communications, allowing people to easily control, view, upload and share digital content through proprietary interface. CantellTV has relationships with a growing network of international clients delivering millions of videos per day with more than 50,000 new videos uploaded and 200 hours of new TV shows broadcasted daily to a wide range of viewers, from 5 to 7 year olds of LiveCartoons; to 16 to 24 year old active social users of MyJumps; to fortune 50 corporate clients utilizing enhanced broadcasting services. CantellTV is committed to delivering infinite choices to your world of entertainment at the tip of your fingers. Chris Cantell retains consulting arrangements with several pre-IPO companies.

edited by Tatiana Kucharikova

Case-Shiller Shows Steep Declines In Home Prices

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Leave it to the government and the Fed to cause the housing bubble, to totally screw up measurement of the housing bubble, and to screw up the measurement of the housing bust as well. It's a perfect track record of incompetence.

By Mike Shedlock

Visit Mike's blog at Global Economic Trend Analysis

The February S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are now out. The index shows declines in the prices of existing single family homes across the United States worsened in the second month of the new year, with 17 of the 20 now reporting MSAs posting record low annual declines, 10 of which are in double-digits.

The following chart was produced by "TC" who has been monitoring C.A.R. data, DQNews data, and Case-Shiller Data. Although individual cities topped at varying times, the top-10 and top-20 cities peaked in a June-July 2006 timeframe.

Let's take a look.

click on chart for sharper image

"TC" writes: I've included data available from the CME Futures market so your viewers can see when people are betting the downturn will end and how much lower it will go. The CME Futures market only trades the top 10 cities.

One interesting "transition" since I last checked the Futures quotes (I do so monthly upon the release of the Case-Shiller data) is that West Coast markets are now predicted to decline further than previously forecast, yet bottom sooner. That seems rather odd to me and it may be because the Real Estate Futures Market is so thinly traded that its forecasting ability is limited.

Inquiring minds will also want to take a look at commentary from Calculated Risk on Case-Shiller: Year-over-year Price Changes.

click on chart for larger view

Calculated Risk discussed the discrepency between Case-Shiller and the OFHEO (Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight) in House Prices: Comparing OFHEO vs. Case-Shiller and House Price Indices.

Following is a sip from the first link above.

This suggests that one of main differences between OFHEO and Case-Shiller was that Case-Shiller included many non-agency homes financed with subprime loans. These homes saw more appreciation during the boom, and are now seeing larger price declines.

Whatever the reasons, the Case-Shiller index seems to more accurately reflect the current price declines in the housing market, as opposed to the OFHEO index. And this has significant implications for the economy.

The Fed uses the OFHEO index to calculate the changes in household real estate assets. If the OFHEO index understated appreciation during the boom that means households have MORE real estate assets, and more equity, than the current Flow of Funds report suggests.

That sounds like good news, but ... that also means that during the housing boom, the wealth effect was larger, and the impact on GDP greater, than current estimates. This also means - if OFHEO understated appreciation - that the negative wealth effect, and the drag on GDP, will be probably be greater than expected during the housing bust.

Leave it to the government and the Fed to cause the housing bubble, to totally screw up measurement of the housing bubble, and to screw up the measurement of the housing bust as well. It's a perfect track record of incompetence.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

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Pacifica Companies is multi-talented Real Estate Group. Founded in 1978 by Ashok Israni, Pacifica's vast Real Estate portfolio includes Hotels, Office Buildings, Industrial Buildings, Retail Shopping Centers, Apartment projects, Mixed-use Developments, Residential Communities, and Land Development Projects in US as well as in India.

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